iPredict: A New Zealand Prediction Market
28 10 2008I’ve been running a $15 portfolio at iPredict for about a month now, and in spite of actually losing money on sensible predictions, I’m really pleased with it. Why am I losing money? Well, when PM.LABOUR shares were low I bought 20 of them, I held on to them figuring the value would improve closer to the election. I then watched them plummet and the value of my portfolio drop to $12 so I sold them to prevent further losses, figuring that as people accepted the inevitability of a National Government the share price would continue to drop in the same way that the US.MCCAIN08 shares have. How wrong I was, a few surprise polls and cooperation from the greens has seen the share price recover, so I’ve made the possibly foolish move of buying 5 more.
Successful outcomes for me so far have been predicting the 100 point drop in the OCR and short selling some OCR.9OCT08 stock.
My current portfolio (including short selling McCain) is graphed below:
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